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New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2025-09-14 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NE
31.6%
MIA
68.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.159 vs Drake Maye (NE) -0.050 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 20
–
MIA 26
Projected margin: MIA by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NE

Christian Gonzalez CB Out Hamstring
Keion White DE Out Illness
Morgan Moses T Questionable Foot
Marte Mapu LB Questionable Neck

MIA

Darren Waller TE Out Hip
Benito Jones DT Out Oblique
Austin Jackson T Out Toe
Storm Duck CB Out Ankle
Ethan Bonner CB Doubtful Hamstring
Jaylen Wright RB Doubtful Knee
Ashtyn Davis S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 33
–
MIA 27

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:34 TD NE (9:34) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 13-M.Hollins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 00:55 TD NE (:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12 – MIA 0
  • Q2 11:25 TD MIA (11:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12 – MIA 6
  • Q2 01:59 FG NE (1:59) 36-A.Borregales 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 15 – MIA 7
  • Q2 00:41 TD MIA (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 28-D.Achane for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 15 – MIA 13
  • Q3 10:46 FG MIA (10:46) 47-R.Patterson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NE 15 – MIA 17
  • Q3 03:42 FG MIA (3:42) 47-R.Patterson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NE 15 – MIA 20
  • Q3 00:12 TD NE (:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-25-T.Dodson, Defensive Holding, declined. NE 21 – MIA 20
  • Q4 07:39 TD MIA (7:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 65 yards to MIA 26, Center-47-J.Ashby. 6-M.Washington for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – MIA 26
  • Q4 07:18 TD NE 47-R.Patterson kicks 55 yards from MIA 35 to NE 10. 4-A.Gibson for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29 – MIA 27
  • Q4 01:52 FG NE (1:52) 36-A.Borregales 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 33 – MIA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 51%

    (11:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 8-S.Diggs to MIA 33 for 10 yards (15-Ja.Phillips; 9-I.Melifonwu).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to NE 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-M.Jones to NE 30 for 8 yards (22-E.Campbell).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (1:59) 36-A.Borregales 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%

    (10:46) 47-R.Patterson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 17 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 86%

    (3:42) 47-R.Patterson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 27%

    (12:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to NE 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-21-A.Davis.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 29%

    (2:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 6-M.Washington INTERCEPTED by 15-M.Mapu at NE 42. 15-M.Mapu to MIA 38 for 20 yards (55-A.Brewer).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 71%

    (1:52) 36-A.Borregales 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 84%

    (:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at NE 37 for -9 yards (97-M.Williams).