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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 22

Miami Dolphins 14 – New England Patriots 15

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 47-R.Patterson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.03 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP