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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 26

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 15

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 47-R.Patterson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.37 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model