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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 20 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to NE 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-21-A.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model