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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 35

New England Patriots 30 – Miami Dolphins 27

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 36-A.Borregales 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.80 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model