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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 27 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at NE 37 for -9 yards (97-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.25 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP