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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to NE 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-M.Jones to NE 30 for 8 yards (22-E.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.00 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model