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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:42) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner up the middle to PIT 19 for 2 yards (22-J.Thornhill).

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.34 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model