SEA @ PIT — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Macdonald

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HC Mike Tomlin

Sunday 2025-09-14 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

SEA

45.9%

PIT

54.1%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

PIT defense: +0.129 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
PIT offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
SEA offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
Sam Darnold (SEA): -0.009 EPA/dropback in prior starts
SEA defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23

–

PIT 24

Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SEA

Nick Emmanwori S Out Ankle

Devon Witherspoon CB Doubtful Knee

PIT

DeShon Elliott S Out Knee

Joey Porter Jr. CB Out Hamstring

Derrick Harmon DT Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 31

–

PIT 17

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:34 TD SEA (10:34) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 15-T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen]. SEA 6 – PIT 0
Q1 04:51 FG PIT (4:51) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. SEA 7 – PIT 3
Q1 02:18 FG PIT (2:18) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. SEA 7 – PIT 6
Q2 01:14 TD PIT (1:14) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – PIT 12
Q3 06:14 TD SEA (6:14) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-A.Barner for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – PIT 14
Q4 12:51 FG SEA (12:51) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – PIT 14
Q4 12:46 TD SEA 5-J.Myers kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to PIT 0. RECOVERED by SEA-36-G.Holani, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-42-J.Pierre has returned to the game. SEA 23 – PIT 14
Q4 07:54 FG PIT (7:54) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. SEA 24 – PIT 17
Q4 03:47 TD SEA (3:47) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – PIT 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 30

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 80%

(4:51) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%

(2:18) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 21

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 91%

(13:42) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner up the middle to PIT 19 for 2 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

(12:09) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(10:48) 3-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to SEA 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Horton to SEA 30 for 8 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 49

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.80 EP

p(convert) 71% p(FG) 35%

(7:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to PIT 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.
Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(6:25) 3-C.Waitman punts 60 yards to SEA 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Horton to SEA 48 for 22 yards (28-M.Killebrew).
Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 29

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 82%

(3:41) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 88-A.Barner INTERCEPTED by 51-N.Herbig (97-Ca.Heyward) at PIT 38. 51-N.Herbig to SEA 21 for 41 yards (40-R.Ouzts; 88-A.Barner).
Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 28%

(:27) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.
Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 64

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP

p(convert) 60%

(11:18) 3-C.Waitman punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(3:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to PIT 39, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.
Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 52

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 28%

(1:41) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to SEA 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 36

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%

(12:51) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 27

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 85%

(7:54) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 68 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 30%

(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin to SEA 46 for 22 yards (39-T.Okada).
Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 46 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%

(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle intended for 19-C.Austin INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant at SEA 18. 8-C.Bryant to SEA 46 for 28 yards (54-Z.Frazier).
Q4 SEA 4th & 11 at the 55 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to PIT 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.