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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 17

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model