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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 6 at the 52
Seattle Seahawks 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14
What Actually Happened
(:27) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.14 EP
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.95 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -1.71 EP
KICK
-0.52 EP
- 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
- 72% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT
-0.24 EP
What Happened
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
