Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

(3:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to PIT 39, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.87 EP
62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model