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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 36

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.78 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model