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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.41 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP