Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Seattle Seahawks 31

(2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin to SEA 46 for 22 yards (39-T.Okada).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.59 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP