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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle intended for 19-C.Austin INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant at SEA 18. 8-C.Bryant to SEA 46 for 28 yards (54-Z.Frazier).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.64 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP