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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.61 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model