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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 74

Green Bay Packers 14 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to WAS 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-J.Lane to WAS 43 for 24 yards (33-E.Williams; 83-S.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.87 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model