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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Thursday 2025-09-11 · 20:15 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

WAS
35.7%
GB
64.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Jordan Love (GB): +0.178 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: +0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 22
–
GB 27
Projected margin: GB by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

WAS

Tress Way P Questionable Back
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Knee

GB

Bo Melton CB Out Shoulder
Brenton Cox Jr. DE Out Groin
Aaron Banks G Questionable Ankle
Zayne Anderson S Questionable Knee
Nate Hobbs CB Questionable Knee
Micah Parsons LB Questionable Back
Zach Bako-Bewele T Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 18
–
GB 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:35 TD GB (4:35) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 07:38 TD GB (7:38) (No Huddle) 8-J.Jacobs left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – GB 13
  • Q2 04:32 FG WAS (4:32) 16-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 3 – GB 14
  • Q3 06:40 FG GB (6:40) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. WAS 3 – GB 17
  • Q4 13:55 TD WAS (13:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – GB 17
  • Q4 09:01 TD GB (9:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – GB 23
  • Q4 06:47 FG GB (6:47) 17-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. WAS 10 – GB 27
  • Q4 02:58 TD WAS (2:58) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 1-D.Samuel for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-L.Van Ness]. WAS 16 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 74%

    (10:30) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden (23-T.Amos).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (8:17) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to GB 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 0-M.Golden to GB 4 for -2 yards (35-P.Butler).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:08) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to GB 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-K.Nixon to GB 24 for 3 yards (39-J.Reaves).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 54 yards to WAS 16, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-J.Lane to WAS 30 for 14 yards (27-K.Oladapo). PENALTY on GB-59-T.Hopper, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 30.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 49%

    (12:30) 10-T.Way punts 35 yards to GB 8, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-18-T.Owens.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 74%

    (4:32) 16-M.Gay 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:14) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to WAS 19, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-J.Lane to WAS 43 for 24 yards (33-E.Williams; 83-S.Williams).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 57%

    (:19) 16-M.Gay 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 13 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 71%

    (12:00) 16-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (6:40) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (5:12) 10-T.Way punts 48 yards to GB 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-K.Nixon to GB 18 for no gain (35-P.Butler). PENALTY on GB-36-K.Hadden, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at GB 18.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:41) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to WAS 38, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-J.Lane to 50 for 12 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 54%

    (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to GB 40 for 1 yard (90-L.Van Ness).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Lane (25-K.Nixon).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 62%

    (6:47) 17-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%

    (1:56) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 1-D.Samuel.