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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 40

Washington Commanders 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(:19) 16-M.Gay 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.35 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model