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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 66

Washington Commanders 3 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 10-T.Way punts 48 yards to GB 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-K.Nixon to GB 18 for no gain (35-P.Butler). PENALTY on GB-36-K.Hadden, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at GB 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.77 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP