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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 41

Washington Commanders 3 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to GB 40 for 1 yard (90-L.Van Ness).

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model