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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 59

Washington Commanders 10 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(7:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Lane (25-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model