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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 24 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 17-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.72 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model