Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Green Bay Packers
4th & 11 at the 53
Green Bay Packers 27 – Washington Commanders 18
What Actually Happened
(1:56) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-1.18 EP
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +0.74 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.21 EP
KICK
-1.27 EP
- 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
- 76% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT
-0.96 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.96 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
