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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 67

Washington Commanders 18 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to 1-D.Samuel.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -1.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model