4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 19

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 18-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.35 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model