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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ARI
55.5%
SF
44.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Mac Jones (SF) -0.021 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.134 EPA/dropback
  • ARI defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 26
–
SF 23
Projected margin: ARI by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

ARI

Will Johnson CB Doubtful Groin
Will Hernandez G Questionable Knee
Paris Johnson Jr. T Questionable Knee
Tip Reiman TE Questionable Foot
Max Melton CB Questionable Knee

SF

Spencer Burford T Out Knee
Jordan Watkins WR Out Calf
Jauan Jennings WR Questionable Ankle
Brock Purdy QB Questionable Shoulder
Connor Colby G Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 15
–
SF 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:48 FG ARI (8:48) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 3 – SF 0
  • Q2 04:26 FG SF (4:26) 18-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. ARI 3 – SF 3
  • Q2 00:20 FG SF (:20) 18-E.Pineiro 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. ARI 3 – SF 6
  • Q3 06:40 FG ARI (6:40) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 6 – SF 6
  • Q4 10:54 TD SF (10:54) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [5-B.Browning]. ARI 6 – SF 12
  • Q4 08:42 TD ARI (8:42) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 12 – SF 13
  • Q4 03:26 SAF ARI (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 6 for 0 yards (2-Ma.Wilson). PENALTY on SF-77-D.Puni, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. ARI 15 – SF 13
  • Q4 00:04 FG SF (:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. ARI 15 – SF 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 26%

    (13:01) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 49 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 59%

    (8:19) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 38%

    (6:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to ARI 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to SF 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore to SF 23 for 14 yards (50-C.Simon; 25-Z.Collins).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (15:00) 7-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to ARI 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

    (8:48) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

    (4:26) 18-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:19) 12-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to SF 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at SF 14 for 4 yards (80-S.Fehoko).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 74%

    (:20) 18-E.Pineiro 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:24) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to ARI 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 14 for 8 yards (28-D.Luter; 57-L.Gifford).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 33%

    (9:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 44 for 5 yards (20-U.Stout).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (6:40) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey (2-Ma.Wilson).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 11 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:11) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to SF 44, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore to ARI 48 for 8 yards (36-K.Crawford).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 57%

    (12:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 1-R.Pearsall pushed ob at ARI 6 for 34 yards (13-K.Clark).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:36) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to SF 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%

    (1:54) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.