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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 63

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 12-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to SF 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at SF 14 for 4 yards (80-S.Fehoko).

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.73 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP