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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 1

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey (2-Ma.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +4.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +1.15 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model