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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 15 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.04 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model