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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 7-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to ARI 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.31 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP