Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(1:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to SF 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-S.Moore to SF 23 for 14 yards (50-C.Simon; 25-Z.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model