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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 89

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 8-R.Rehkow punts 32 yards to CIN 43, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.76 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 89, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model