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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CIN
53.7%
MIN
46.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Carson Wentz (MIN): -0.135 EPA/dropback in prior starts (MIN starting Carson Wentz in place of J.J. McCarthy)
  • CIN offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
MIN 22
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CIN

Shemar Stewart DE Out Ankle
Cam Taylor-Britt CB Doubtful Hamstring
DJ Turner II CB Questionable Hamstring

MIN

Ryan Kelly C Out Concussion
Justin Skule T Out Concussion
J.J. McCarthy QB Out Ankle
Harrison Smith S Questionable Illness
Andrew Van Ginkel DE Questionable Concussion
Christian Darrisaw T Questionable Knee
Austin Keys LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 10
–
MIN 48

Prediction missed by 39 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:01 TD MIN (13:01) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 84-J.Oliver for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 06:25 TD MIN (6:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right intended for 30-C.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers (22-H.Smith) [0-I.Pace] at MIN 13. 2-I.Rodgers for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – MIN 13
  • Q2 09:23 FG MIN (9:23) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. CIN 0 – MIN 17
  • Q2 04:46 FG CIN (4:46) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 3 – MIN 17
  • Q2 02:00 TD MIN (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 86-N.Fant to MIN 32 for 4 yards (2-I.Rodgers). FUMBLES (2-I.Rodgers), RECOVERED by MIN-2-I.Rodgers at MIN 34. 2-I.Rodgers for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – MIN 23
  • Q2 00:36 TD MIN (:36) (Shotgun) 27-J.Mason left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – MIN 30
  • Q2 00:03 FG MIN (:03) 16-W.Reichard 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. CIN 3 – MIN 34
  • Q3 06:04 TD MIN (6:04) 27-J.Mason up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – MIN 40
  • Q3 00:20 TD MIN (:20) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – MIN 47
  • Q4 11:20 TD CIN (11:20) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 89-D.Sample for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-8-J.Okudah, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. CIN 9 – MIN 48

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:28) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to MIN 20, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 26 for 6 yards (38-D.Ivey; 49-B.Carter).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 19 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:02) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to CIN 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 48 for 9 yards (85-B.Yurosek).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:59) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to MIN 27, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 43 for 16 yards (46-W.Wagner; 50-S.Heyward).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 30%

    (1:45) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to CIN 7, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 16 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:54) 8-R.Rehkow punts 32 yards to CIN 43, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (9:23) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%

    (4:46) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:59) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to CIN 37, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones. PENALTY on MIN-37-T.Thomas, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 37.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 52%

    (:03) 16-W.Reichard 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:55) 8-R.Rehkow punts 68 yards to MIN 5, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 11 for 6 yards (42-O.Burks). PENALTY on CIN-37-P.Jules, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 11.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:20) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to CIN 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:14) 8-R.Rehkow punts 70 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 43 for 29 yards (25-T.Brooks).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 35%

    (6:05) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to CIN 9, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:53) 8-R.Rehkow punts 52 yards to MIN 33, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 44 for 11 yards (37-P.Jules).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 69%

    (:33) (Shotgun) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right to 36-Z.Scott to CIN 17 for 20 yards (69-M.Pennel).