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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 16-W.Reichard 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.15 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model