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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.46 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model