Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Minnesota Vikings 34

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 8-R.Rehkow punts 68 yards to MIN 5, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 11 for 6 yards (42-O.Burks). PENALTY on CIN-37-P.Jules, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.59 EP
57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model