Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Minnesota Vikings 48

(8:14) 8-R.Rehkow punts 70 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 43 for 29 yards (25-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.16 EP
67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model