4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Minnesota Vikings 48

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 8-R.Rehkow punts 52 yards to MIN 33, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 44 for 11 yards (37-P.Jules).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.55 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 43, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model