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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 83

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to CIN 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 48 for 9 yards (85-B.Yurosek).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.25 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model