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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to MIN 27, Center-46-W.Wagner. 4-M.Price to MIN 43 for 16 yards (46-W.Wagner; 50-S.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 82, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model