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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 48

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 36 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model