DEN @ LAC — 4th & Data

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HC Sean Payton

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HC Jim Harbaugh

Sunday 2025-09-21 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

DEN

44.5%

LAC

55.5%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

DEN offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
LAC offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
LAC defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
DEN defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.141 vs Bo Nix (DEN) +0.125 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DEN 24

–

LAC 26

Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DEN

Evan Engram TE Out Back

Dre Greenlaw LB Out Quadricep

LAC

Will Dissly TE Out Knee

Elijah Molden S Out Hamstring

Daiyan Henley LB Questionable Illness

Cam Hart CB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 20

–

LAC 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:57 FG LAC (11:57) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. DEN 0 – LAC 3
Q2 01:56 TD LAC (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – LAC 9
Q2 00:46 TD DEN (:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LAC 10
Q3 13:49 TD DEN (13:49) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – LAC 10
Q3 12:06 FG DEN (12:06) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 17 – LAC 10
Q3 05:38 FG LAC (5:38) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. DEN 17 – LAC 13
Q4 12:24 FG DEN (12:24) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DEN 20 – LAC 13
Q4 02:44 TD LAC (2:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-N.Bonitto]. DEN 20 – LAC 19
Q4 00:05 FG LAC (:05) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. DEN 20 – LAC 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

(11:57) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 60

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP

p(convert) 55%

(10:23) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 39 yards to LAC 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q1 LAC 4th & 14 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(7:11) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to DEN 7, Center-41-R.Lovato. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 39 for 32 yards (43-T.Dye).
Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(4:58) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to LAC 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 18 for 7 yards (48-M.Fraboni).
Q1 LAC 4th & 18 at the 90

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(2:48) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to DEN 30, Center-41-R.Lovato. 19-M.Mims to LAC 46 for 24 yards (58-M.Wax; 28-H.Haskins).
Q1 DEN 4th & 12 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

(1:47) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 36 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q2 DEN 4th & 19 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(6:07) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to LAC 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 46 for 33 yards (16-J.Crawshaw; 28-T.Badie).
Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 52

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 61% p(FG) 32%

(:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(:11) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to DEN 20, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 24

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 89%

(12:06) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

(5:38) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(3:46) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to LAC 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(2:18) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to DEN 41, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 32

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 79%

(14:21) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to LAC 10 for 22 yards (32-A.Gilman). PENALTY on LAC-32-A.Gilman, Face Mask, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 10.
Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 8

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

(12:24) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 41

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%

(7:51) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-41-R.Lovato, Touchback.
Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP

p(convert) 73%

(5:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LAC 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.
Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 78 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(1:53) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 32 for 10 yards (28-T.Badie).