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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:11) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to DEN 20, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -2.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model