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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 24

Denver Broncos 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP