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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 13

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.96 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 13, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model