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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 65

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to LAC 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model