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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to DEN 41, Center-41-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.05 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model