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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 32

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to LAC 10 for 22 yards (32-A.Gilman). PENALTY on LAC-32-A.Gilman, Face Mask, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 10.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.81 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model